The writing is on the wall for Tottenham's manager, Thomas Frank, despite a Champions League win.
Tottenham's recent Champions League victory over Borussia Dortmund might seem like a glimmer of hope, but it's not enough to save manager Thomas Frank from the looming crisis. The team's performance in the Premier League has been abysmal, and the underlying statistics paint an even bleaker picture. With the team currently sitting at 14th in the league, it's hard to see how they can turn things around.
Hindsight may offer clarity, but many Tottenham Hotspur fans have long felt that Frank isn't the right fit for the team. After a promising start, the club has plummeted down the Premier League table, winning only two out of 13 games. The atmosphere has turned toxic, with fans clashing with players and booing the manager before matches. Even the Champions League win couldn't fill the stadium, with over 10,000 empty seats.
The Dortmund victory was a rare bright spot, with Spurs delivering a solid performance. However, the red card given to Daniel Svensson in the 26th minute can't be ignored. Despite this, Spurs played some of their best football under Frank, moving up to fourth in the Champions League table.
But history is repeating itself. Last season, Tottenham won the Europa League but finished 17th in the Premier League. The Dortmund win is a temporary relief, as the team's domestic struggles persist.
For every positive result, there's a string of disappointing performances. Since their previous win, Spurs have gone five games without a victory. During this period, they failed to capitalize on early leads, lost to struggling teams, and crashed out of the FA Cup. Their performance against Brentford was particularly uninspiring, leaving fans with little hope.
The comparison to Arsenal's turnaround under Mikel Arteta is intriguing. Arsenal struggled initially, but Arteta's trust in the process paid off, leading them to four consecutive title battles. Tottenham's CEO, Vinai Venkatesham, might hope for a similar revival, having witnessed Arsenal's success during his tenure there.
However, the situations aren't entirely parallel. Arsenal showed signs of improvement, winning the FA Cup in Arteta's first season. In contrast, Frank's tenure at Spurs has been largely disappointing, with terrible performances and few reasons for optimism.
Frank's claims of his team playing well have been contradicted by the numbers. When Spurs lose, they deserve to, and when they draw, it's often due to late equalizers or exceptional goalkeeping. Their victory over Dortmund stands out as a rare instance of good play.
Frank's Spurs struggle to maintain possession and create quality chances. They rely heavily on set-pieces, with a higher proportion of expected goals from dead balls than any other Premier League team. The team's expected goals (xG) battle record is concerning, with only three teams performing worse.
The xG model has its limitations, as it doesn't consider game state. Opta's expected points (xPts) model, while facing similar issues, provides insight into teams' deserved positions. Spurs have consistently overachieved compared to their xPts, suggesting their current league position is a more accurate reflection of their performances.
Frank's early days at Brentford saw him survive a poor start due to underlying data showing unfortunate losses. At Spurs, the data tells a different story, indicating a downward trajectory. The club's hierarchy, while facing few viable alternatives, must decide whether to stick with Frank or make a bold change.
The Champions League success might be a turning point, but the numbers don't lie. Tottenham's struggles under Frank are evident, and a decision to keep him could be detrimental. Will the club take a leap of faith, or will they heed the warning signs? The fate of Tottenham's season hangs in the balance.
